Mechanical Engineering - Industrial Engineering and Production Management - Discussion

Discussion Forum : Industrial Engineering and Production Management - Section 2 (Q.No. 6)
6.
A PERT network has three activities on critical path with mean time 3, 8 and 6 and standard deviations 1, 2 and 2 respectively. The probability that the project will be completed in 20 days is
0.50
0.66
0.84
0.95
Answer: Option
Explanation:
No answer description is available. Let's discuss.
Discussion:
27 comments Page 2 of 3.

Kapilkotadiya said:   6 years ago
It is working on the function of Z which is denoted by Z(1)=0.84, therefore the answer is 0.84.

Thanks.

Sumit Patil said:   7 years ago
Yeah, 0. 66 is right. I agree @Nir.

Harsh said:   8 years ago
I am not getting it, please explain in detail.

Dishant said:   8 years ago
Why 1*1?

Yawer abbas said:   1 decade ago
how we calculate project completion time probability through mean time of critical activities and standard deviation eaxmple:

A PERT network has three activities on critical path with mean time 3, 8 and 6 and standard deviations 1, 2 and 2 respectively. The probability that the project will be completed in 20 days is.

Jayesh Chavda said:   9 years ago
Which Z table? @Chigumbura.

Chigumbura said:   9 years ago
Standard deviation = square root of (variance) = square root of (1 * 1 + 2 * 2 + 2 * 2) = square root of (9) = 3.
D = 20.
S = 3 + 8 + 6 = 17.

Probability = (D - S)/standard deviation = 1.
Now, from Z table probability = 0.84.

Sushant Bhalla said:   9 years ago
Check the table @Jerrin.

Jerrin said:   9 years ago
Then how it become 84%?

Sachin said:   10 years ago
(20-3-8-6)/(1^2+2^2+2^2)^1/2 = 1.


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