Current Affairs - Economy

NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani has projected that India's economy will grow at a rate of 7% in the fiscal year 2024-25. This optimistic forecast indicates expectations for robust economic recovery and growth momentum, driven by recovering private consumption and potentially increased foreign direct investment amidst favourable global economic conditions. The projection underscores efforts to sustain and accelerate economic growth in India, contributing to broader fiscal stability and developmental goals.

In June 2024, India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported a provisional year-on-year inflation rate of 5.08%. This index reflects the overall price changes experienced by consumers for a basket of goods and services, with rural inflation recorded at 5.66% and urban inflation at 4.39%. The CPI serves as a crucial economic indicator, providing insights into inflationary trends across different regions and impacting policy decisions related to monetary and fiscal measures aimed at maintaining price stability.

The Financial Inclusion Index (FI-Index) measures the extent of financial inclusion in India, with a scale from 0 to 100. In March 2024, the FI-Index rose to 64.2 from 60.1 in March 2023, reflecting overall growth across all sub-indices, especially in usage. This indicates significant progress in financial inclusion, showing that a larger portion of the population is engaging more frequently with financial services. The index's improvement highlights advancements in access, usage, and quality of financial services.

India's employment growth rate in FY24, as per the RBI report, surged to 6% from 3.2% in FY23. This increase reflects the creation of 46.7 million jobs, bringing total employment to 643.3 million by March 2024. Despite this growth, concerns about rising unemployment rates highlight ongoing challenges in the labour market amidst varying economic assessments and projections.

The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) forecasts India's GDP growth rate for the fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25) to potentially reach around 7.5%. This outlook suggests optimism about the resilience and growth momentum of the Indian economy, supported by various high-frequency indicators showing robust performance across sectors.